While the information systems market in France grew by a mediocre 9% during the course of 1989, the market for Unix systems increased by 27% over the same period, according to the Unix en France, les annees 1990 study published by Pierre Audoin Conseil and reported in Processeurs magazine. The report is the result of a survey conducted for the fourth consecutive year by Cedric Thomas with some 310 respondants, including users, manufacturers, and value added resellers – both in France and abroad. According to Cedric Thomas, Unix gained a point in value in the sale of equipment between 1988 and 1989, representing 8% of sales two years ago and 9% last year, and could reach 18% by 1994. Cedric Thomas estimates that the average annual growth of Unix systems in France, measured by installed base, will be 23% over the period from 1989 to 1994, compared with a growth of 7% in the total computer market. In 1989, he says, 33,000 Unix machines were shipped in France, an increase of 49% compared with the 22,100 shipped year before; at this rate he expects that by 1994 the number should grow to around 130,000 Unix systems. According to Cedric Thomas, the important thing to watch is not so much Unix, but Posix. He says the debate about the importance of Unix is closed now – Unix is a standard recognised by more than nine out of ten users – 69% consider it a standard now, and 24% consider it as a standard of the future. But, he says, for some large organisations replacing hodge-podges of incompatible machines, Unix is no longer the only operating system being considered as a common replacement. And some organisations will major on co-existence of Unix with their existing operating systems. According to the study, in 1989, multi-user systems accounted for 42% of Unix installations, and workstations 40%. The remaining 18% comprised 15% microcomputers, 2% for minicomputers, and 1% for superminis. For Cedric Thomas, the development of the Unix market in France depends on the pattern of growth of the market as a whole, and there could be a price war between manufacturers – Unix is the system most suitable for down-sizing. There are currently about 50 significant Unix system vendors in France, the leading five being Sun Microsystems, Bull SA, Hewlett-Packard Co and its Apollo arm, and Altos Computer Systems – these accounted for 49% of orders in 1989, against 47% the year before. Cedric Thomas reckons the spoils will go increasingly to the strong, and that these five will increase their market share further – with IBM and DEC perhaps joining them to the near exclusion of the host of small Unix system firms.
