Expanding data storage requirements for most types of computer systems, combined with the new storage appetites of video and multimedia applications, are forcing a continuous upward movement in the typical capacities of rigid disk drives. The rapid changes in product mix are occurring while the disk drive industry continues to increase its shipments every year, according to the 1994 Disk/Trend Report on the worldwide rigid disk drive industry from Mountain View, California-based Disk/Trend Inc. This year’s forecast worldwide shipment total of 60.3m drives is up 16.3% on last year. The report also shows changing demand in disk capacity; this year shipments in the 100Mb to 200Mb range are forecast to fall by 50% to 10m whereas last year, this range led the industry’s shipments. This year, 200Mb to 300Mb drives have taken the lead with 21.5m units, but are expected to be down 46.1% in 1995. The leader in 1995 will be the 300Mb to 500Mb group, with anticipated shipments of 23.7m drives. Further upward movement in average disk drive capacities is expected after 1995. This year’s Disk/Trend Report forecasts that worldwide sales revenues for rigid disk drives will rise 5.7% to $22,970m, reflecting a healthy recovery from 1993’s 11.6% decline in total revenues. The rigid disk drive industry, badly bruised by 1993’s disk drive price wars, also saw a steady decline during the 1990s in shipments of older drives used with mainframes and minicomputers, and sold at relatively high prices on a captive basis by major system manufacturers.

Only 30 firms remaining

However, the older generation of drives is almost gone and continuing growth in disk drive markets for personal computers, workstations and network file servers is expected to boost the worldwide sales revenues for rigid disk drives to $33,200m. In terms of total shipments, this will rise to 83.9m by 1997, at an average annual increase of 12.8%. The 3.5 category will have a strong lead still: the report predicts shipments of 62.6m drives. But drives using small diameter disks will make major gains: 2.5 drive shipments are expected to grow to 16.2m by 1997 from 6.3m in 1993. During the same period, shipments of 1.8 and smaller drives will jump rise to 4.6m from 157,200 drives currently: most of these shipments will be in PCMCIA card formats. But as sales rises, the number of manufacturers continues to shrink. There are only 30 firms remaining in the worldwide rigid disk drive business compared with 57 companies in 1991; 47 in 1992; and 40 in 1993. Most of the drop-outs had small market shares and were not able to compete efficiently as shipment levels climbed, prices continued downward and product life cycles shortened. Of the manufacturers remaining, the noncaptive disk drive producers continue to raise their share of the rigid disk drive industry sales revenues, and it is projected they will have 62.1% market share in 1997 against 1993’s 57.7%. Independent disk drive manufacturers have moved quickly during the last decade to exploit technology advances with the rapid introduction of new disk drives and the small companies of the 1980s have become industry leaders in the 1990s. Seagate Technology Inc retained its long-term lead in noncaptive sales revenues in 1993 with 23.9% of the worldwide total. Quantum Corp rose to take second place with 16.2%.