1990 will be a year of modest growth for the semiconductor industry, but 1991 should see a resumption of robust growth, and world output should double by 1994 to $120,000m. So says a report by Dataquest for the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials International trade body in Mountain View, California. The report sees a flat 1990 but very good growth in 1991 to 1993 and slightly slower growth in 1994. The number of planned new semiconductor wafer fabs for the next two years is a second indicator of future growth: more than 100 worldwide, with 50 in North America. Capital spending on equipment and facilities by all producers is forecast to increase from $12,000m in 1990 to $26,000m in 1994. The survey also looked at industry’s perceptions of the future: electronic equipment suppliers estimate a 7% growth in sales for 1990. Semiconductor device suppliers see 3% growth in sales and semiconductor equipment suppliers see their business growing 5% in 1990. Semiconductor materials suppliers are also looking for 5% growth, which seems difficult if output is going to grow only 3% – perhaps wastage of silicon wafers is set to soar. In 1989, worldwide sales of electronic equipment reached $800,000m. $60,000m worth of semiconductor devices were manufacutered and sales semiconductor equipment and materials manufacturers’ worldwide sales reached $20,000m, Dataquest estimates. Both Japanese and US equipment companies experienced about the same growth in 1989, but differ on their outlook for 1990. Japanese equipment firms expect 1990 growth to be 8.4%, compared with 13.3% this year. US equipment companies expect sales to rise 3.6% in 1990, compared to 15% this year. When the Japanese and US outlooks are combined, the forecast averages out at 5% growth for the semiconductor equipment business in 1990.
