The worldwide business market for thin clients will reach 6.8 million units in 2002, up from just 510,000 in 1998, according to a study published by International Data Corp. While the future for thin clients may be rosy, IDC’s research also leads it to claim that the market for Windows-based terminals is poised to grow much quicker than the market for enterprise network computers. This year appears to be the do-or-die time for NCs, as IDC says that IBM Corp alone is working to advance the market for corporate NC desktops amid a landscape of recent defections to the WBT camp and generally weak shipments of NCs. For the NC side of the market to make any serious headway, Sun Microsystems Corp’s long-awaited JavaStation needs to ship as planned – during the current quarter. Initial shipments are expected to be announced at this week’s JavaOne conference in San Francisco. An additional boost could come if rumors of Apple Computer Corp’s entry into the NC space for the educational market prove true. That seems highly unlikely, as Apple says that while it’s committed to the sub-$1,000 space, it currently has no product plans in place for an NC and will not comment on possible future activity in the low-end market. IDC is a lot more bullish on WBTs, given the launch of Microsoft Corp’s Hydra Terminal Server (CI No 3,365) and the deal between Intel Corp and Network Computing Devices Inc for lean clients which NCD says will run Windows CE. It has yet to commit to any other platform. More worrying for the future of NCs may be the fact that with the exception of IBM and Sun, most of the vendors listed on IDC’s market share table for 1997 have indicated that they will participate in the WBT segment. Some will also ship an NC, but most plan to concentrate on the WBT piece. Thus, IDC is projecting that of the 6.8 million unit target for 2002, five million will be running Windows. The IDC research does not take the consumer market for thin clients into account.
