An estimated 274 million PC units are expected to ship in 2009, a 6% decline from the numbers that landed during 2008.

Gartner is predicting the start of a slow market recovery towards the end of the year and is forecasting a 10% improvement during 2010.

“We expect units to contract roughly 10% year over year in both second and third quarter 2009 before they post positive growth in the fourth quarter,” the market-watchers said in a statement this morning.

An appetite for mini-notebooks has helped cushion the decline, with demand for mobile-PC units also forecast to be slightly stronger than last year.

Any impact of the release in October of Windows 7 is likely to be very modest, the analyst house said.