In the 1970s and early 1980s, the computer industry was able to expand almost completely oblivious to the economic climate outside: now, reports Computer Sweden, many analysts and industry experts are agreed that the industry is displaying increasingly cyclical tendencies as it becomes more dependant on the growth experienced by national economies as a whole. In Sweden, John Ortengren of the AB Marknadsforskning market research group claims that signs of market maturity had already set in that corresponded closely to the fall in Swedish economic growth, while figures published by the US Department of Trade suggest that this is true for all the major markets: the ministry states that global growth in the computer sector is falling from 6.2% in 1989 to 4.3% in 1990, and is accompanied by a similarly widespread economic deceleration. And Computer Associates’ Goran Wadsren is convinced that investment in data technology has decreased with slower growth rates. Research carried out by the Swedish Konjunkturinstitutet on the Swedish and US economies indicates that the former will experience growth rates of as little as 0.8% in 1991, while for the US, the Konjunkturinstitutet estimates that economic growth will have fallen to 2% in 1991 from a rate of 3% now – all of which means that, if the analysts and observers are right, and if the Swedish and US economies are typical of other world economies, things are not going to get better for the computer sector for some years. Phil Dorn, of Dorn Computer Consultants, agrees, arguing that the next decade will be characterised by even more merger and acquisition activity, and margins will continue to fall lower; but as Karl-Erik Sjodin, marketing director for Control Data Corp in Sweden points out: While many information technology companies will be hit hard and will probably be forced to concentrate a larger part of their activity abroad to spread risks, firms that introduce effective rationalisation measures could in fact do better in a slow economy. He hopes.
