In an attempt to claw back lost ground, IBM Corp has announced its vision for the future of the personal computer – a future based on a ‘super-galaxy’ collision of personal computer technology, telecommunications and consumer electronics. UK Personal Systems director Howard Ford acknowledges that the company had been criticised for missing opportunities and misjudging the market since launching its first product here in 1983, thereby allowing clone-makers and software developers to take a large slice of the IBM pie. But he put a brave face on it, saying that ‘IBM’s de facto standard is one of the reasons for the success of the market’.
Technophobic
Little consolation when turnover is down and margins are so low that the business can’t make a profit, even though volume sales may be up 40% worldwide. So, IBM now feels the time is right for a bit of innovation. The theme of its strategy, according to assistant general manager of worldwide subsystems development, Paul Mugge, is ‘getting personal about future computing’. Or in other words, injecting ‘more customer-perceived value’ into IBM boxes, a step seen as ‘necessary to maintain the current level of sales’. According to Mugge, IBM is going all out to provoke the collision of the three major technologies mentioned above personal computers, communications and consumer electronics because it wants to be at the heart of the mobile computer market. Key future trends for personal computers, he said, will be portability – by 1996, the company predicts that 30% of all personal computers sold will be portables – and ‘usability’ anyone should be able to use a computer at any time and anywhere. Possibilities include pen-based machines, touch screens, and speech recognition; technology that should woo even the most technophobic of customers. Portability, however, can only be achieved by improved communications – radio, satellite, and wireless local area networks. IBM has even coined a new phrase to describe such wireless networks – personal area networks or PANs. Mugge believes such technology will open up new markets, in particular, mobile workers and students. But, the ‘most alluring and tantalising area’, he claims, is consumer electronics, in conjunction with multimedia software.
By Catherine Everett
The machine of the future, he stated, will be modular in design. It will carry data, graphics, music, full digital motion video and television. Other applications include virtual reality, speech synthesis and speech recognition. In IBM’s opinion, such technology will appeal to the fireside market, which it considers has massive potential for growth, while accelerating the trend towards telecommuting. To achieve the desired results, Mugge gave his staff at IBM’s Boca Raton laboratories in Florida a mission – instead of simply building enhancements to existing kit as normal, he wanted them actually to develop something new. Hand-held computers, he said, for one thing had to have colour casings because he didn’t want such products to be identified with IBM’s ‘typical stodgy grey and white’ offerings. But to have real appeal for the mass market, Mugge sees direct marketing and careful pricing as the way ahead. He outlined some of the work undertaken at Boca Raton: first, the team has developed a ThinkStation, which ‘will replace anything offered by any other vendors’ workstations’ – in fact, ‘this will blow them out of the tub’. The ThinkStation will be a 50MHz 80486 box with a flat panel display. It will be completely wireless, and have multimedia and speech recognition capabilities. Second, the Grand Central series, which will have the character of a mainframe and the personality of a personal computer. IBM is developing four classes of boxes, ranging from handheld machines to mainframe replacements. The third offering is the Ultimedia a new version of the PS/2, with multimedia capabilities, including intelligent monitors.
Digital Assistant
By 1995, IBM expects to have built-in audio and speakers integrated into either the monitor or keyboard. And last but not least, IBM’s pi
ece de resistance is the PDA, Personal Digital Assistant – the name favoured by Apple Computer Inc for its Newton and allied products. The handheld device will act as a telephone, an address book, a calendar, and facsimile machine. It will support electronic mail, will be able to access databases, have a liquid crystal digital touch-pad for pen-based computing, and a PCMCIA slot to insert 20Mb of hard disk, Ethernet interface or Token Ring network cards. Future versions, Mugge said, will have hand-writing and speech recognition capabilities. Users will be able to slip ‘option’ cards into the PCMCIA slot to receive television, radio and use digital communications. But he refused to elaborate on IBM’s choice of software for the PDA, simply saying, ‘the jury is out’, although ‘the leading candidates are not OS/2 or Windows’. He did add, however, that IBM is interested in ‘ROMable DOS’, and is working on the project internally and with others. The products are currently in beta test and are expected to begin appearing by the middle of this year – the UK and US launch of the forerunner Thinkpad notebook with built-in bubblejet printer is just around the corner.
